Will Matteo Renzi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly specify that the outcome depends on the next individual being officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy before the December 31, 2028 deadline.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly specify that the outcome depends on the next individual being officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy before the December 31, 2028 deadline. Official Italian government records serve as the primary source, with credible reporting as a fallback. The only notable condition is the explicit exclusion of interim or caretaker prime ministers, which prevents temporary administrative appointments from triggering resolution.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
<1%
chance▲ +0.35 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Matteo Renzi will be the next person to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028. Notably, any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Matteo Renzi is officially appointed and sworn in as the next Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, excluding any interim or caretaker positions. The market resolves to No if a different individual officially assumes the office first, or to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. The primary resolution source is official information from the Government of Italy, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Italy, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·