Will Guido Crosetto be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market has a clear deadline of December 31, 2028, and requires the individual to be officially appointed and sworn in.
Read the full assessment
The market has a clear deadline of December 31, 2028, and requires the individual to be officially appointed and sworn in. However, the explicit exclusion of interim or caretaker Prime Ministers introduces interpretive risk, as Italian constitutional transitions frequently involve technocratic or mandate-limited cabinets whose classification as standard versus caretaker could be contested. Resolution relies primarily on official Italian government records with a secondary allowance for a consensus of credible reporting.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Guido Crosetto will become the next Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028. Interims or caretakers do not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Guido Crosetto is officially appointed and sworn in as the next Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count toward resolution. The market resolves to No if another individual officially assumes the office first. The market resolves to Other if no individual takes office by the deadline. Resolution is determined using official information from the Government of Italy, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Italy, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·