US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The question title omits the year, but the rules establish a clear cutoff of September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies primarily on official statements from the United States government or military confirming actual physical custody of Iranian enriched uranium, explicitly excluding deals or plans for future transfer. However, the rules also permit resolution based on a widespread consensus of credible reporting if no official announcement is made, leaving the market decider to judge whether news coverage is sufficiently unified and reliable to confirm physical possession.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the United States obtains physical custody or control of any amount of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by September 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the US government or military officially announces or confirms, or widespread credible reporting establishes, that the US has obtained actual physical custody or control of any quantity of Iranian enriched uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying possession can occur anywhere and through any means, such as seizure or agreed surrender, but announcements of future plans or agreements do not qualify. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official information from the US government or a widespread consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the government of the United States, or a widespread consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.