Will Notre Dame Fighting Irish win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
Current price
14.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 14.5%
$57.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The outcome criteria are clearly tied to winning the official College Football Playoff national championship. However, participants should be aware of early resolution clauses: the market can resolve to No immediately once the team is mathematically eliminated from contention. Additionally, if the championship is postponed past February 8, 2027, or no champion is determined by then, the market resolves to a separate Other outcome rather than waiting or resolving to No. Resolution primarily relies on official NCAA information, though reporting consensus is also permitted as a secondary basis.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is determined as the national champion of the 2026-27 College Football Playoff. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to be named as the national champion of 2026-27 NCAA Football Division 1 season per the rules of NCAA (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after February 8, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the NCAA; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will win the 2026–27 College Football Playoff National Championship. An unusual rule resolves ties in favor of whichever team name comes first alphabetically, and resolves to Other if no champion is declared by February 8, 2027.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are determined as the national champion of the 2026-27 College Football Playoff. If multiple teams are declared winners, the market resolves in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. The market resolves to No if the team does not win, or if it becomes impossible for the team to be named champion under NCAA rules, such as through elimination. The market resolves to Other if the event is cancelled, postponed past February 8, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or if no champion is declared within that timeframe. Resolution is determined using official NCAA information or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Champion declaration deadline: — Market resolves to Other if the event is cancelled, postponed beyond this time, or no champion is named.
Resolution source
NCAA or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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