Will Katherine Clark be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on the official record of the first Speaker of the House elected by the 120th Congress after the 2026 midterms.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on the official record of the first Speaker of the House elected by the 120th Congress after the 2026 midterms. The target event is well-defined as a formal roll call vote of the U.S. House of Representatives, with official House records serving as the primary source. While credible media consensus is listed as a backup, Speaker elections are public, high-profile proceedings with direct official documentation, leaving virtually no room for ambiguity or unexpected edge-case interpretations.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
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Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Katherine Clark will be elected as the first Speaker of the House for the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Katherine Clark is the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress after the 2026 midterms. The market resolves No if another individual is elected first. The resolution is determined using official information from the United States House of Representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the United States House of Representatives or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·