Will Kevin Clarke win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$12.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on who becomes mayor of Toronto following the scheduled October 2026 election. The primary decider is a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single named official tally, though official information from the city serves as a backstop if reporting is ambiguous. A long fallback deadline of June 30, 2027 provides ample buffer for any certification delays or legal challenges. Interim or temporary appointments made prior to the election are explicitly excluded from deciding the market.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kevin Clarke will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election to become the next mayor of Toronto.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Kevin Clarke becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of the 2026 election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election do not count. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, with official information from Toronto used if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — The scheduled date for the 2026 Toronto mayoral election.
- Resolution deadline: — If results are unknown by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or official information from Toronto if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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