Will John Tory win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$17.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly based on who wins the scheduled municipal election to become the next mayor of Toronto. The rules rely on a consensus of credible media reporting, backed by official election determinations from the City of Toronto if reporting is unclear. A generous resolution window extending to June 30, 2027 accounts for any potential recounts or certification delays. Note that interim or placeholder appointments prior to the election are explicitly excluded.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether John Tory will become the next mayor of Toronto following the 2026 Toronto mayoral election. Resolution explicitly disregards any temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed prior to the election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if John Tory becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of the 2026 mayoral election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election do not count. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official information from Toronto serving as the deciding source if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — The scheduled date for the Toronto mayoral election.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are unknown by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official information from Toronto as fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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