Will Marco Mendicino win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$19.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines resolution based on which candidate becomes the next mayor of Toronto from the scheduled October 2026 election. It explicitly excludes interim appointments made prior to the vote. Resolution relies on consensus reporting with a fallback to official municipal election data if results are contested or unclear, providing a reliable official backstop. A resolution window extending to June 30, 2027 ensures ample time for official certification, recounts, or legal challenges to conclude before a timeout triggers.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Marco Mendicino wins the 2026 Toronto mayoral election, with a specific deadline for resolution if the election results are not known.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Marco Mendicino is declared the winner of the 2026 Toronto mayoral election. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins the 2026 Toronto mayoral election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election do not count. If the election result is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, official information from Toronto will be used.
Key dates
- Scheduled Election Date:
- Resolution Deadline: — If the election result is not known by this date, the market resolves to "Other".
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting; official information from Toronto
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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