Will Anthony Furey win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$13.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on who becomes the next mayor of Toronto following the scheduled October 2026 election. The primary source relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official city information serving as a fallback if results are contested or unclear. Interim or placeholder appointments made prior to the election are explicitly excluded. If the outcome cannot be determined by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to a fallback outcome. The criteria align closely with standard expectations for an election market.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthony Furey will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election and become the next mayor of Toronto.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthony Furey becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of the 2026 mayoral election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election do not count. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election and becomes mayor. The market resolves to Other if the outcome of the election is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution, with official information from Toronto serving as the deciding source if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is scheduled to be held.
- Resolution cutoff: — If the election result is not known by 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or official information from Toronto if results are ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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