Will Michael Ford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$16.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto resulting from the scheduled October 2026 election, explicitly excluding interim or placeholder appointments prior to the vote. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting rather than waiting strictly for certified results, though official information from the city serves as a fallback if reports conflict. An extended deadline of June 30, 2027 provides substantial time for recounts or election challenges to conclude before triggering an unresolved outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Michael Ford will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election and become the next mayor of Toronto.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Michael Ford becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of the 2026 election. The market resolves to No if another candidate becomes mayor as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. The market resolves to Other if the result of the election is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official information from Toronto if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election date: — The scheduled date for the 2026 Toronto mayoral election.
- Resolution deadline: — If the election result is not known by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or official information from Toronto if ambiguity exists
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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