Will Ana Bailão win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$12.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on which candidate becomes the next mayor of Toronto following the scheduled October 2026 election. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with official city information serving as a fallback if results are disputed or unclear. Interim or temporary mayoral appointments made prior to the election are explicitly excluded, and a generous timeout date of June 30, 2027, provides sufficient time for official certification or legal challenges without risking premature resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ana Bailão wins the 2026 Toronto mayoral election. The market has a specific deadline for resolution, after which it will resolve to 'Other' if the election result is not known.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Ana Bailão becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of the 2026 mayoral election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election do not count. The market resolves No if a candidate other than Ana Bailão becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of the 2026 mayoral election. The market resolves Other if the result of the election is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is any ambiguity in the results, official information from Toronto will be used.
Key dates
- Scheduled Election Date:
- Market Resolution Deadline: — If the election result is not known by this date, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting; official information from Toronto
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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