Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Current price
25.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 25.5%
$147.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly on whether Brad Bradford becomes mayor of Toronto resulting from the scheduled October 2026 election. The rules provide a substantial buffer until June 30, 2027 to finalize the outcome, at which point an unresolved race defaults to Other. While the primary decision basis relies on a consensus of credible news reporting rather than an exclusively designated official feed, it specifies an explicit fallback to official information from the City of Toronto if results are contested or ambiguous.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Brad Bradford wins the 2026 Toronto mayoral election, resolving based on the official outcome of that election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Brad Bradford is declared the winner and becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of the 2026 mayoral election. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins the 2026 Toronto mayoral election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election do not count for resolution. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, official information from Toronto will be used.
Key dates
- Scheduled Election Date:
- Market Resolution Deadline: — If the election result is not known by this date, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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