75.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 75.5%
$180.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
The market resolves based on which candidate becomes the next mayor of Toronto resulting from the October 2026 election, explicitly excluding any interim or temporary appointments made prior to the vote. Resolution relies primarily on deciders judging a consensus of credible media reporting, backed by official city election information if ambiguity arises. A substantial buffer extending to June 30, 2027 provides ample time for recounts or delayed certifications before an unresolved outcome triggers resolution to an alternative option.
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
The contract rose from 0.6375 to 0.735, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the price move.
The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.
AI-generated · 14 Oct 2026, 01:05 UTC
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Rules history is not displayed yet.
This market measures whether Olivia Chow wins the 2026 Toronto mayoral election. The market specifically excludes temporary or interim mayors appointed before the election.
The market resolves Yes if Olivia Chow becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of the 2026 mayoral election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election do not count. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins the 2026 Toronto mayoral election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting. If results are ambiguous, official information from Toronto will be used.
a consensus of credible reporting; official information from Toronto
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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