Will Mark Kelly be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Last captured price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$5.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The question asks specifically whether Mark Kelly will become Senate Majority Leader, but the rules reference resolving to 'Other' if no leader is established by June 30, 2027, creating potential confusion over how a binary question settles against a multi-choice resolution clause. Additionally, no specific official authority, news outlet, or formal certification process is named to define what constitutes an official announcement, leaving resolution to general interpretation. The market also features an extended resolution timeline, keeping trading open until January 3, 2027, with a long fallback window extending through mid-2027 in the event of an unsettled majority.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mark Kelly will be announced as the next Senate Majority Leader following the November 2026 U.S. General Election. The resolution is unusual because it depends on the first announcement of the leader for the majority party, and has a specific deadline for that announcement.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Mark Kelly is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This resolution is based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. The market resolves No if someone other than Mark Kelly is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This resolution is also based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. The market resolves Other if no Senate Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The market will remain open until January 3, 2027, to await the announcement.
Key dates
- U.S. General Election:
- Market close date:
- Other outcome deadline: — If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by this date, the market resolves to "Other".
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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