Will Amy Klobuchar be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Last captured price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$5.1K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules tether resolution strictly to the period following the November 3, 2026 general election, meaning any leadership changes occurring prior to that date are excluded. The phrasing creates ambiguity by specifying that the market will resolve to 'Other' if no leader is announced by June 30, 2027, even though the question is framed as a binary Yes/No outcome for a specific candidate. Additionally, no official verifying source or record is designated to confirm the announcement, leaving it up to the resolver to judge when and where a qualifying announcement has occurred. Leadership elections typically occur in November or December following the election, but the market specifies it remains open until January 3, 2027, introducing a delay before resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Amy Klobuchar will be announced as the next Senate Majority Leader following the November 2026 U.S. General Election. The market has a specific resolution deadline and a fallback to "Other" if no leader is announced.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Amy Klobuchar is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This announcement must be the first from the party holding the majority in the U.S. Senate. The market resolves No if someone other than Amy Klobuchar is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This must be the first announcement from the party holding the majority in the U.S. Senate. The market resolves Other if no Senate Majority is established and no leader is announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution is based on the announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader.
Key dates
- U.S. General Election:
- Market remains open until:
- Resolution deadline for 'Other': — Eastern Time
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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