Will Brian Schatz be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Last captured price
7.75¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7.75%
$5.1K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules do not specify an official authority or publication source for the announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader, leaving the determination of what constitutes an official announcement to the market decider. Additionally, while the question is framed as a single candidate inquiry, the resolution rules include a clause stating the market will resolve to 'Other' if no majority or leader is established by June 30, 2027, which creates ambiguity over whether that outcome would resolve as 'No' or cause a void/other state. The timeline between election day and the January 3, 2027 target date is standard for congressional leadership transitions, but the absence of named reporting sources or verification standards remains a risk.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Brian Schatz will be announced as the next U.S. Senate Majority Leader following the November 3, 2026, general election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Brian Schatz is first announced as the next Senate Majority Leader by whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate following the November 3, 2026, election. The market resolves to No if another individual is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader. The market resolves to Other if no majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined by the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from the majority party.
Key dates
- U.S. General Election: — The announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader must occur after this election.
- Market open duration threshold: — The market remains open until this date to resolve based on the first announcement.
- Fallback deadline: — Market resolves to Other if no majority is established and no leader is announced by this time.
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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