Will Tom Cotton be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Last captured price
4.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.1%
$8.2K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules do not specify an official resolution source, such as the official records of the Senate or specific news organizations, relying instead generally on who is announced as leader. Additionally, Senate leadership elections typically take place in November or December immediately following the general election, but the rules dictate that the market remains open until January 3, 2027, before resolving on the first announcement. Finally, the rules include a fallback resolving to Other if no Senate majority is established and leader announced by June 30, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tom Cotton will be announced as the next U.S. Senate Majority Leader following the November 3, 2026, General Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tom Cotton is the first individual announced as the next Senate Majority Leader representing whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate after the November 3, 2026 General Election. The market resolves to No if any other individual is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader. The market resolves to Other if no majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The rules do not name a specific deciding source.
Key dates
- U.S. General Election: — Leader announcement must occur after this date.
- Initial resolution check: — Market remains open until this date to resolve based on the first announcement.
- Final deadline: — Market resolves to Other if no majority and leader are announced by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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