Will Steve Daines be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Last captured price
1.4¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.4%
$25.1K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The question asks who will be the next Senate Majority Leader, but the rules explicitly restrict the outcome to whoever is announced after the November 3, 2026 general election. Any leadership transition occurring before that date would not count under these terms. Additionally, the rules do not designate a specific official source or reporting agency for the announcement, leaving room for interpretation regarding whether an internal party caucus vote or a formal Senate floor vote constitutes the deciding announcement. There is also a long backstop deadline extending to June 30, 2027 if majority control remains contested, at which point the market resolves to a fallback outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Steve Daines will be announced as the Senate Majority Leader following the November 2026 U.S. General Election. The resolution depends on the first official announcement of the leader for the majority party.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Steve Daines is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This announcement must come from the party that holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. The market resolves No if someone other than Steve Daines is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This announcement must come from the party that holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. The market resolves Other if no Senate Majority is established and no leader is announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution is based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader.
Key dates
- U.S. General Election:
- Market close:
- Last possible resolution date for Yes/No: — If no leader is announced by this date, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.