Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Current price
24.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 24.5%
$34K total volume · YES/NO
High gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market contains a severe mismatch between the question and the detailed rules. While the title asks who will be the next Senate Majority Leader, the rules specify that resolution applies only after the November 3, 2026 general election, keeping the market open until at least January 3, 2027. This directly contradicts the plain meaning of the question for anyone expecting resolution around the immediate next Congress. Furthermore, no specific official authority, publication, or certification body is designated to verify the announcement, leaving the determination of who announced what to market deciders. If no majority is settled or no announcement occurs by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to an unlisted outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- High
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether John Thune is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader following the November 2026 US General Election. The market has an unusual resolution condition if no majority leader is announced by a specific date.
How it resolves
This market resolves Yes if John Thune is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market resolves No if someone other than John Thune is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. The resolution is based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market resolves to Other. The market will remain open until January 3, 2027, for the initial announcement.
Key dates
- US General Election:
- Market remains open until:
- Fallback resolution deadline: — If no Majority Leader is announced by this date, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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