Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?
Current price
63¢
−2.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 63%
$657.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market defines the snapshot time precisely as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch and provides a clear formula for calculating fully diluted valuation alongside an ultimate expiration date. However, the resolution source is vaguely specified as 'the most liquid price source available' rather than a named aggregator or exchange. For newly launched tokens with volatile trading across multiple decentralized and centralized venues, different liquidity measurements and price feeds could lead to conflicting valuations near the $150M threshold, leaving room for subjective judgment by the resolving party.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of the Extended token exceeds $150M one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Extended's token is greater than $150M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. FDV is calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $150M at that time, or if Extended does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Pricing is evaluated using the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — Market resolves to No if no token launch occurs by this time.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
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