Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Last captured price
4.6¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.6%
$65.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules establish clear, objective criteria for resolution based on the official closing share price and shares outstanding on OpenAI's first day of public trading. Resolution relies primarily on the official listing page of the primary exchange where the shares debut, with clear guidance on handling shortened sessions, trading halts, and exact boundary values. While there is a fallback to an unspecified reliable source if the exchange does not report the figure, the calculation method is fully standard. An explicit deadline of December 31, 2027, governs the outcome if no public debut takes place.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI's market capitalization falls between $1T and $1.25T at the official market close of its initial public offering trading day on or before December 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, and its market capitalization at the close of its first trading day is between $1T and $1.25T. If the market capitalization falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. The market resolves to No if an IPO occurs by the deadline but the market capitalization finishes outside this bracket. If no IPO takes place by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". If trading is interrupted on day one, the abbreviated session's official closing price is used, or the next trading day with a published close if none exists. Resolution is determined using the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is not displayed.
Key dates
- IPO deadline: — Latest date and time for an IPO to occur
Resolution source
The primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is not displayed
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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