Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Current price
2.75¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.75%
$70K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution rules clearly define the metric as the primary exchange closing price multiplied by total shares outstanding on the first day of public trading. Clear contingency rules cover trading halts, half-days, boundary edge cases between price brackets, and the exact expiration cutoff if no public listing takes place by the end of 2027. Resolution relies directly on the listing exchange's official reporting, with minimal ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI's market capitalization closes between $750B and $1T on its first day of public trading by December 31, 2027. Values falling exactly on the boundary between brackets resolve to the higher range.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, and its market capitalization at market close on its first day of trading is between $750B and $1T. Market capitalization is calculated as total shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on that day. If the value lands exactly on the boundary between two brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket. If trading is interrupted, the official closing price of the abbreviated session is used; if none is published, the next trading day with an official closing price counts. The market resolves to No or another bracket if the market cap falls outside this range, or to 'No IPO by December 31, 2027' if no IPO occurs by the deadline. Resolution is determined using the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if unavailable.
Key dates
- IPO deadline: — Deadline for OpenAI to complete an IPO
Resolution source
The primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is not displayed
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.