Will the Democratic Party win the WI-05 House seat?
Current price
2.2¢
+0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.2%
$45K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning the Wisconsin 5th Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterms. The rules clearly handle potential edge cases regarding party affiliation, noting that independent candidates will be categorized by their stated intent to caucus when all House races are called. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a designated official backup source at the Federal Election Commission if results are disputed or ambiguous. Overall, the outcome aligns straightforwardly with standard election reporting and certification.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins Wisconsin's 5th congressional district House seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the WI-05 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus when all House races are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with the Republican Party or another party not aligning with the Democrats. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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