Will the Republican Party win the WI-05 House seat?
Current price
97.35¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 97.35%
$63.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly based on which political party wins the Wisconsin 5th congressional district election in the 2026 midterms. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. The rules also provide clear handling for non-major-party candidates, assigning them based on explicit caucus intent at the time all House races are finalized. Standard election certification timing applies, but the mechanics leave little room for unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Wisconsin's 5th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the WI-05 House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party by ballot listing, other identifiable affiliation, or most recently expressed caucus intent when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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