Will the Republican Party win the WA-05 House seat?
Current price
88.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 88.5%
$32.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves according to the party of the winning candidate in Washington's 5th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results designated as the fallback if reporting remains ambiguous. If an independent or third-party candidate wins, their party assignment is determined by their stated intent to caucus with either Democrats or Republicans. Participants should note that the resolution timing is tied to when all 2026 House races nationally are conclusively called, meaning delayed counts or recounts in other districts could keep this market open even after the local race outcome is apparent.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Washington's 5th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the WA-05 House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party, either by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus if not ballot-listed. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. The election outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If credible reporting is ambiguous, the market resolves solely based on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- election day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback authority.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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