WA-05 House Election Winner
2 live outcomes · highest priced: Michael Baumgartner (R) at 89% · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $84.4K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for Washington's 5th congressional district. Markets measure which political party or candidate will win the seat.
How the outcomes relate
Each market represents a specific political party seeking election in Washington's 5th congressional district. Because only one candidate wins the congressional seat, at most one party market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with that specific political party wins the WA-05 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections; otherwise, it resolves to No. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or identifiable affiliation at the time the elections are conclusively called, or by expressed caucus intent for unaffiliated candidates. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the official fallback in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Baumgartner (R) | 89% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Carmela Conroy (D) | 10% | ▼ 1 | Low | High |