Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat?
Current price
6.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.5%
$75.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins Virginia's 6th congressional district in the November 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution mechanism relies on a consensus of credible reporting to call the winner, with a clear fallback to official Federal Election Commission results if any ambiguity arises. If a winning candidate runs without a major party ballot label, the rules explicitly assign party attribution based on their most recently declared intent to caucus at the time all House elections are conclusively called. The criteria are standard and leave little room for unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the VA-06 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections, with resolution based on the winning candidate's party affiliation at the time all House elections are called.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with any other party, or no party, wins the VA-06 congressional district seat. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. If a candidate has no ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties, their affiliation is based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at that same time. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections:
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
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