Will the Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat?
Current price
93.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 93.5%
$46K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly based on which party wins Virginia's 6th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules establish clear handling for independent or third-party candidates, assigning them to a major party based on their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting once all House races are called, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified data in the event of ambiguity or dispute.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Virginia's 6th Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned to a party based on their stated caucusing intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the VA-06 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with another party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or the party the candidate most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguous cases decided solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections stated in the rules.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the sole source if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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