Will the Democratic Party win the TX-26 House seat?
Current price
3.1¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.1%
$23.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify that resolution tracks the party affiliation of the winner of the TX-26 congressional race in the 2026 midterms. The primary resolution mechanism relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified results if ambiguity arises. The market also includes clear tie-breaking criteria for independent or third-party candidates based on expressed caucusing intent once all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the TX-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation are classified by their most recently expressed intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate in Texas's 26th congressional district is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House races are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission (FEC) results serving as the sole source if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date of the election for the TX-26 House seat.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.