Will the Republican Party win the TX-26 House seat?
Current price
96.15¢
+0.55¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96.15%
$39.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly based on which party wins Texas's 26th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity arises. The rules explicitly define how candidate party affiliations are established, including how independent or third-party candidates are handled based on their stated intent to caucus, leaving little room for misinterpretation or surprise.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Texas's 26th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the TX-26 U.S. House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party. A winning candidate without a ballot-listed party affiliation counts as Republican if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with the Democratic Party, or is an unaffiliated candidate who expressed intent to caucus with Democrats or otherwise does not qualify as a Republican. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, the Federal Election Commission serves as the deciding source.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date of the midterm elections for the TX-26 House seat.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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