Will the Democratic Party win the TX-25 House seat?
Current price
2.55¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.55%
$29.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the winning party for Texas's 25th congressional district in the 2026 midterms. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission figures serving as the backup if reporting is ambiguous. While straightforward for standard nominees, participants should note the specific party affiliation clauses: non-major-party candidates will be assigned to a party based on their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House elections are finalized, which could lead to unexpected classifications if an independent or third-party candidate wins.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Texas's 25th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party label are classified based on their stated caucusing intentions.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the TX-25 congressional district seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party, determined by their ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the official fallback source in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — The date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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