Will the Republican Party win the TX-25 House seat?
Current price
96.45¢
+0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96.45%
$23.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning the TX-25 House seat in the November 2026 midterms. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous. Rules explicitly define how party affiliation is handled, including provisions for third-party or independent candidates based on caucus intent once all House elections are called. There are no unusual carve-outs or unexpected clauses likely to surprise participants.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the Texas 25th Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the TX-25 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with another party, such as the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House races are called, or by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with if not listed as Democrat or Republican. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Day: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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