Will the Democratic Party win the TX-24 House seat?
Current price
8.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 8.5%
$27.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning the TX-24 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterms. Resolution is primarily determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission website if ambiguity arises. The rules explicitly define how candidate party affiliation is assigned, including clear caucus-intent criteria for candidates without a listed major-party affiliation on the ballot.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Democratic candidate will win Texas's 24th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections. Party affiliation includes candidates lacking a formal ballot line who intend to caucus with Democrats.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the TX-24 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate without a ballot affiliation counts as a Democrat if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats when all House races are called. The market resolves to No if a candidate not affiliated with the Democratic Party wins. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguous outcomes decided solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — The date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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