Will the Republican Party win the TX-24 House seat?
Current price
91.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 91.5%
$43.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on which party wins the 2026 midterm election for Texas's 24th congressional district. The rules explicitly define how party affiliation is handled, including for independent or third-party candidates via caucusing intent. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a designated official backup source at the Federal Election Commission to handle any ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Texas's 24th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the TX-24 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Candidates without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation are assigned to the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at that time. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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