Will the Democratic Party win the TX-06 House seat?
Current price
0.15¢
−1.7¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$42.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Texas's 6th Congressional District. Outcome determination relies first on a consensus of credible media reporting, which leaves room for decider interpretation if calls differ, but includes a definitive fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified data if ambiguity arises. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, with clear provisions attributing unaffiliated or third-party candidates to a major party based on their stated caucusing intentions once all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the Texas's 6th Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections. Unaffiliated candidates are assigned to a party based on their expressed intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the TX-06 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. The winning candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation, or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if they lack a major party ballot listing when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Democratic Party under these criteria. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the official fallback source in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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