Will the Republican Party win the TX-06 House seat?
Current price
99.85¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 99.85%
$75K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes a win for the specified party in the 2026 midterm election for Texas's 6th Congressional District. It covers edge cases such as candidates running without standard ballot party affiliations by checking their stated intent to caucus at the time House races are called. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission records if results are ambiguous, minimizing the chances of an unexpected outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the Texas 6th Congressional District (TX-06) seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the TX-06 House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party on the ballot or has most recently expressed an intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves No if the winning candidate belongs to or intends to caucus with the Democratic Party or another non-Republican affiliation. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If ambiguity exists, the market resolves solely based on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — The election takes place on this date.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the sole official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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