Will the Democratic Party win the TX-02 House seat?
Current price
6.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.5%
$15.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins the TX-02 congressional district election in November 2026. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit guidance for independent or third-party candidates based on their stated caucus intentions. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single named official call, though the Federal Election Commission is specified as an official fallback if ambiguity arises. While standard post-election counting and canvassing timelines apply, the core criteria are straightforward with minimal risk of unexpected interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the Texas's 2nd Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the TX-02 congressional district seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party, determined by their ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House elections are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Democratic Party under these criteria. Outcome determinations are made by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the decisive source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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