Will the Republican Party win the TX-02 House seat?
Current price
92.5¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 92.5%
$15.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly specifies that resolution hinges on which party wins the TX-02 congressional district in the November 2026 midterm elections. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a definitive backup in case of ambiguity. Explicit criteria are provided to handle third-party or independent winners via their stated caucus intent at the time all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the Texas 2nd Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the TX-02 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party, either by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Republican Party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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