Will the Democratic Party win the TN-09 House seat?
Current price
14¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 14%
$21.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins Tennessee's 9th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules specify that resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a definitive fallback if any ambiguity arises. Clear provisions handle party affiliation, dictating that candidates lacking a ballot line for a major party will be classified by their publicly stated intent to caucus at the time all House races are conclusively called. While relying on consensus reporting involves some initial judgment, the explicit fallback to an official government agency and clear caucus-tie rules make the resolution mechanics straightforward and predictable.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Democratic candidate will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Tennessee's 9th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party affiliation on the ballot count toward a party based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the TN-09 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. A winning candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation resolves Yes if they most recently expressed an intent to caucus with Democrats. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party, such as the Republican Party, wins the seat. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — Date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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