Will the Republican Party win the TN-09 House seat?
Current price
87.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 87.5%
$25.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning Tennessee's 9th congressional district seat in the 2026 midterms. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission in cases of ambiguity. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including clear fallback provisions for independent or non-major party candidates based on their expressed caucus intent at the time all House elections are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Tennessee's 9th congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major-party ballot listing are assigned based on their stated intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the TN-09 House seat in the 2026 midterms. The market resolves No if another party's candidate wins. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House races are called; candidates lacking a major-party label are classified by their most recently expressed intent to caucus. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Election Day when the TN-09 House race takes place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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