Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?
Current price
0.6¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.6%
$46.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the winner of the 2026 midterm election for Tennessee's 4th congressional district. The primary decider is a consensus of credible reporting rather than an immediate single named official source, though official results from the Federal Election Commission serve as a formal fallback if reporting is ambiguous. Explicit rules are in place for third-party or independent candidates, categorizing them by their most recently expressed caucus intent at the time all House races are conclusively called. The rules directly match standard expectations for determining election winners, creating minimal risk of an unexpected resolution outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win Tennessee's 4th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the TN-04 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Affiliation is based on their ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House elections are called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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