Will the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat?
Current price
98.75¢
+0.7¢ · 24h
Implied probability 98.75%
$86.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single named official source, though it specifies the Federal Election Commission as an official fallback if ambiguity arises. The rules explicitly define party affiliation based on ballot listing or stated intent to caucus at the point when all House races are called, providing clear guidance for independent or third-party outcomes. Resolution timing is tied to the conclusion of reporting across the full midterm cycle, but the overall conditions directly reflect the standard outcome of the race.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Republican Party candidate will win the Tennessee's 4th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the TN-04 House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party, either by ballot listing or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if not listed on the ballot. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If ambiguity exists, resolution relies solely on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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