Will the Democratic Party win the RI-02 House seat?
Current price
92.95¢
+0.9¢ · 24h
Implied probability 92.95%
$20.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the conditions for resolving the 2026 Rhode Island 2nd Congressional District election, including explicit handling of party affiliation and caucus intentions for non-major-party candidates. Resolution primary relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission in case of ambiguity or dispute. Timing is tied to when all House elections are conclusively called, which aligns with standard post-election reporting cycles.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the RI-02 House seat in the 2026 US midterm elections. The resolution considers a candidate's party affiliation at the time all House elections are called, including their stated intent to caucus if not ballot-listed.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the RI-02 congressional district seat is a member of the Democratic Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or their most recently expressed intent to caucus with the Democratic Party at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the candidate who wins the RI-02 congressional district seat is not a member of the Democratic Party. This includes candidates affiliated with other parties or those who express intent to caucus with a non-Democratic party. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections:
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
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