Will the Republican Party win the RI-02 House seat?
Current price
5.35¢
−0.95¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.35%
$30.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly specify that the outcome depends on which party wins Rhode Island's 2nd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules establish clear edge-case handling for independent or third-party candidates by looking at ballot listing and stated caucus intent. Initial resolution relies on judging a consensus of credible reporting across news organizations, with a formal fallback to official Federal Election Commission reporting if ambiguity arises. Party affiliation is fixed at the point when all House elections nationwide are conclusively called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market tracks whether the Republican Party will win Rhode Island's 2nd congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the RI-02 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate belongs to another party. Candidate party affiliation is based on their ballot listing or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House races are called; candidates without a Democratic or Republican ballot listing are assigned to the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at that time. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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