Will the Democratic Party win the PA-14 House seat?
Current price
3.35¢
+0.35¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.35%
$15.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Pennsylvania's 14th congressional district. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single named official source immediately, though official Federal Election Commission results serve as a designated fallback if reporting is ambiguous. The rules provide specific guidance on how candidate party affiliation is determined, including clear fallback terms regarding caucus intent for independent or non-major party winners assessed once all House races are called. The criteria align cleanly with the question asked.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the Pennsylvania 14th Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the PA-14 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Affiliation is based on ballot listing or the party the candidate most recently expressed intent to caucus with if not listed as Democrat or Republican, assessed when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins. The election outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — The date the 2026 midterm elections will take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.