Will the Republican Party win the PA-14 House seat?
Last captured price
96.3¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96.3%
$26.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 PA-14 U.S. House election. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including how non-major party candidates are handled via stated intent to caucus at the time all House elections are called. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Pennsylvania's 14th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the PA-14 House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party, either by ballot listing or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans if unaffiliated on the ballot, at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves to No if a candidate not affiliated with the Republican Party wins. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission (FEC) results if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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