Will the Republican Party win the PA-11 House seat?
Current price
96¢
−0.6¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96%
$44.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on standard US midterm election outcomes for Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district. The rules explicitly handle potential edge cases, such as independent or third-party candidates, by defining party affiliation through ballot listing or expressed intent to caucus. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to Federal Election Commission data if ambiguities or disputes arise. Timing depends on election calls and certification, but follows normal electoral processes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the PA-11 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The resolution considers a candidate's party affiliation at the time all House elections are called, including their intent to caucus if not ballot-listed.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections is a member of the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or their most recently expressed intent to caucus with the Republican Party at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not a member of the Republican Party, based on the same criteria. The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Election Date:
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
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