Will the Republican Party win the OK-05 House seat?
Current price
87.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 87.5%
$15.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the winning party of Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit guidance for candidates without a standard party listing based on their caucus intent. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the official fallback source in the event of ambiguity. Timing depends on when all House races are conclusively called, but the criteria for determining the winner are straightforward and standard for congressional election markets.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Oklahoma's 5th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the OK-05 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party, either by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or most recently expressed intent to caucus. The market resolves to No if the winning candidate is affiliated with the Democratic Party or another party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If ambiguity exists, the official results from the Federal Election Commission will serve as the sole deciding source.
Key dates
- Midterm election date: — The date on which the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in cases of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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