Will the Democratic Party win the OH-14 House seat?
Current price
2.5¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.5%
$55.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 OH-14 congressional election based on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the definitive fallback if ambiguity arises. The rules explicitly define party affiliation mechanics, including how non-major party candidates will be classified according to their expressed intent to caucus at the time all House elections are called. Timing is standard for midterm election certifications and calls, with minimal unexpected conditions.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate representing or intending to caucus with the Democratic Party wins Ohio's 14th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate of the OH-14 congressional district seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party on the ballot, or if unaffiliated with either major party, has most recently expressed intent to caucus with the Democrats when all 2026 House races are called. It resolves No if the winner is affiliated with or expresses intent to caucus with the Republican Party, or otherwise does not meet the Democratic criteria. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source for official results
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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