Will the Republican Party win the OH-14 House seat?
Current price
96.65¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96.65%
$46.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the target election, district, and how a candidate's party affiliation or caucus intent is determined. Resolution primary relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Standard election timeline dynamics apply, but the fallback to official certification provides a deterministic final outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Republican candidate wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Ohio's 14th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a ballot-listed party are classified by their expressed caucusing intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the OH-14 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party on the ballot, or, if unaffiliated with the major parties, has most recently expressed an intent to caucus with Republicans when all House races are called. It resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party or caucusing with Democrats wins. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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